A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
